ESA's space hazards team have found an asteroid that comes close enough to Earth to pose an impact threat

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Amateur discovers near Earth asteroid in ESA-sponsored survey

Amateur skywatchers help space hazards team

12 October 2011
For the first time, observations coordinated by ESA's space hazards team have found an asteroid that comes close enough to Earth to pose an impact threat. The space rock was found by amateur astronomers, highlighting the value of 'crowd-sourcing' to science and planetary defence.

The discovery of asteroid 2011 SF108 was made by the volunteer Teide Observatory Tenerife Asteroid Survey (TOTAS) team during an observation slot sponsored by ESA's Space Situational Awareness (SSA) programme in September.

The four-night survey used the 1m-aperture telescope at ESA's Optical Ground Station at Teide on Tenerife in the Canary Islands.

This is not the first asteroid found under SSA sponsorship, but it is the first that qualifies as a 'near Earth object' – an object that passes close enough to Earth during its orbit around the Sun that it could pose an impact threat.

Images require human evaluation

During TOTAS observations, the telescope runs automated asteroid surveys for several hours using software developed by amateur astronomer and computer scientist Matthias Busch from the Starkenburg Amateur Observatory in Heppenheim, Germany.

However, potential sightings must still be evaluated by humans.

The team comprises 20 volunteers, most of whom took part in the manual evaluation of images captured during the session on 28/29 September.

	Optical Ground Station (OGS) building, Tenerife

Safe distance: 30 million km

"Images are distributed to the entire team for review, and any one of them could be the discoverer of a new asteroid," says Detlef Koschny, Head of NEO activity for SSA. "This time, the luck of the draw fell to Rainer Kracht."

"As volunteer work, it is very rewarding. When you do spot something, you contribute to Europe's efforts in defending against asteroid hazards."

The orbit of asteroid 2011 SF108 brings it no closer than about 30 million km to Earth – a safe distance.

“When you do spot something, you contribute to Europe's efforts in defending against asteroid hazards.”

The object is the 46th asteroid discovered by Mr Kracht, a retired school teacher who lives in Elmshorn, near Hamburg, Germany. "Eight of us reviewed images on the night of the discovery, and I was lucky to be the one who found 2011 SF108 as part of this team," says Mr Kracht.

"The discovery was only possible with the excellent software developed by Matthias Busch, who also spotted this object in the images on the second night and sent the observations to the Minor Planet Center."

To date, some 8000 NEOs have been discovered worldwide but many thousands more are suspected to exist, particularly in the size of metres to hundreds of metres. It is important to find and track these to determine if any pose an impact threat to Earth.

	Control room at ESA's Optical Ground Station, Tenerife

Amateur TOTAS team lays foundation

TOTAS is helping to lay the foundation for a future European asteroid survey as part of the full SSA programme, which is to be decided in 2012.

Such a survey would use multiple 1m telescopes to scan the complete sky every night, a much larger effort than at present, and is expected to discover several NEOs per week. It would use a mix of professional and 'crowd-sourced' astronomers.

Currently, professional asteroid surveys are performed only in the USA. The only significant asteroid survey in Europe now is the La Sagra Sky Survey, undertaken by amateur astronomers in southern Spain.

Russian scientists predict asteroid strike

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31.01.2011

April 13, 2036 is the date of impact when the asteroid Apophis will smash into the Earth with the force of 50 million Hiroshima bombs, according to research based on predictions by Russian scientists. This is more than another scare story: so many scientists agree that a major international conference has been called.

In his work "Astronomers now predict killer asteroid will hit Earth in 2036", US based researcher and writer Terrence Aym* quotes Russian Professor Leonid Sokolov, of St. Petersburg State University, who stated in a TV interview recently that "It is likely a collision with Earth may occur on April 13, 2036" with the asteroid Apophis.

Aym points out that Apophis is the Greek name for the Egyptian God Apep, or "The Uncreator".

This is not empty scare mongering. More and more scientists recognise the danger is real, so many that a major international summit has been convened. Anatoly Perminov, the head of the Russian Federal Space Agency Roscosmos stated in an official press release. "Russian space officials and members of the European Commission will meet in early July to discuss joining forces against thousands of potentially hazardous asteroids."

Until 2004, according to the work, Apophis had not been seen, however in the last seven years it has been recognised as the most severe threat to our planet, and to quote Terrence Aym, "the most imminent threat to the human race".

The trajectory of Apophis has created a split in the international scientific community: the Russians and Europeans are increasingly concerned, while NASA astronomers play down the chances of a collision. Whatever the case, what is the plan in the event of a catastrophic strike, a repeat of the Yucatan asteroid impact 65 million years ago which wiped out most of the larger species on Earth?

To be succinct, there isn't one. Russia and the European Union will launch a joint asteroid project in a meeting to be held on July 7, 2011, between the European Commission and scientists and engineers from the Russian Federal Space Agency, the Russian Academy of Sciences and representatives of other scientific and civil Institutions.

The Russian Space Agency Roscosmos, according to the work, has calculated that such an impact would not only cause massive climate change but worse, with an impact the equivalent of one million megatons of TNT (50 million Hiroshima bombs), would annihilate modern civilization. Terrence Aym writes that a crater with a diameter of one thousand kilometres would be created and the dust thrown up into the atmosphere would blot out the Sun, creating a nuclear-type Winter lasting up to tens of thousands of years.

The work continues with an ominous quotation from the Russian specialist: "In recent years, the attention of scientists, technicians, politicians and the military has become increasingly focused on the asteroid and comet hazard, namely the threat of the Earth's collision with large space bodies," Perminov stated. "It is caused by the fact that special supervision programs led to a dramatic increase in the number of such objects being detected, and the new information allowed to gain a new insight into the problem."

* Terrence Aym

Astronomers now predict killer asteroid will hit Earth in 2036

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by Terrence Aym

• 

January 28, 2011

Grim astronomers in Russia have recalculated the trajectory of the ominous asteroid Apophis and now predict it will slam into Earth on April 13, 2036.

An asteroid struck the Yucatan basin 65 million years ago wiping out the dinosaurs, changing the climate, and destroying much of life on Earth.

The asteroid's name, Apophis, is the Greek name for the Egyptian god Apep, also known as "the Uncreator."

"Apophis will approach Earth at a distance of 37,000 to 38,000 kilometers on April 13, 2029. Its likely collision with Earth may occur on April 13, 2036," Professor Leonid Sokolov of the St. Petersburg State University stated during an interview with state television and reported by Russian news service RIA Novosti.

As more astronomers are recognizing the danger, a major summit has been called. "Russian space officials and members of the European Commission will meet in early July to discuss joining forces against thousands of potentially hazardous asteroids," Anatoly Perminov, the head of the Russian Federal Space Agency Roscosmos stated in an official press release.

Largest threat

Although large meteors and asteroids whiz by our planet every year—and thousands of tons of space debris falls through our atmosphere annually—Apophis, first seen during 2004, is considered by scientists to be the most imminent threat to the human race.

While Russian and European scientists have increased their warnings of the approaching danger the asteroid poses, NASA has charted a different course. In 2010 the American space agency announced it had reduced the chances the object's disastrous collision with Earth.

Sokolov believes the project is urgent as each day that passes will make it more difficult to steer the asteroid with current technology.

As nations around the world have recognized the threat large space objects such as comets and asteroids pose to life on Earth, no global defense plan has been developed to meet a possible emergency. Without a plan and effective defense, catastrophe might result.

A meeting scheduled for July 7, 2011 will consider a proposal to launch a joint asteroid project between Russia and the European Union.

In an interview on Russian television following the press release, Perminov said, "I received a letter, in which the European Commission proposes to meet on July 7 in Roscosmos with scientists and engineers of the Federal Space Agency, the Russian Academy of Sciences and other institutions and organizations. At the meeting, the Russian bid to start a joint project with the EU will be considered."

50 million Hiroshima bombs

Roscosmos has its own cable channel. Recently it released calculations based on the data gathered from nuclear weapons tests, that reveal asteroids with diameters of one to two kilometers are sufficient to initiate massive climate change after an impact with Earth.

The figures show that a collision with an object of such a mass would generate the equivalent of one million megatons of TNT—or put another way—approximately 50 million of the type of atom bomb dropped on Hiroshima.

And that, of course, is enough to destroy all of modern civilization.

Forces of Doomsday

Rosomov warns that an impact by an object the size and mass of Apophis, traveling at the speed it does, would create indescribable kinetic energies and release the forces of Doomsday. Such an asteroid strike would create a crater at least 1,000 kilometers across and catapult billions of tons of dust and soot into the atmosphere. The so-called "nuclear winter" would follow immediately and plunge the entire world into the depths of a major Ice Age lasting thousands, even tens of thousands of years.

"In recent years, the attention of scientists, technicians, politicians and the military has become increasingly focused on the asteroid and comet hazard, namely the threat of the Earth's collision with large space bodies," Perminov stated. "It is caused by the fact that special supervision programs led to a dramatic increase in the number of such objects being detected, and the new information allowed to gain a new insight into the problem."

Spacefaring countries have all launched asteroid tracking projects designed to identify and calculate objects that may present a clear and present danger to the planet. NASA's Near Earth Asteroid Tracking (NEAT), Deep Space 1, Deep Impact, Dawn and Stardust, as well as ESA's Rosetta and JAXA's Hayabusa are some of the most well known.

"Our task is to consider various alternatives and develop scenarios and plans of action depending on the results of further observations of Apophis," Sokolov said.