Showing posts with label Solar Storm. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Solar Storm. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 10, 2019
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Friday, May 27, 2011
Solar Max
2011 is going to be a key solar weather year as the sun starts to become more active. At its angriest, the sun can emit tides of electromagnetic radiation and charged matter known as coronal mass ejections, or CMEs, emitting electromagnetic burts that could disrupt satellites and other technology. * The sun goes through moments of calm and tempest, usually on an 11-year cycle. * Static discharges and geomagnetic storms on the sun can disrupt electronics. * The latest prediction suggests 2013 will be the maximum phase of the solar cycle. Wed Dec 29, 2010 02:33 PM ET Content provided by AFP
The coming year will be an important one for space weather as the sun pulls out of a trough of low activity and heads into a long-awaited and possibly destructive period of turbulence.
Many people may be surprised to learn that the sun, rather than burn with faultless consistency, goes through moments of calm and tempest.
But two centuries of observing sunspots -- dark, relatively cool marks on the solar face linked to mighty magnetic forces -- have revealed that our star follows a roughly 11-year cycle of behavior.
The latest cycle began in 1996 and for reasons which are unclear has taken longer than expected to end.
Now, though, there are more and more signs that the sun is shaking off its torpor and building towards "Solar Max," or the cycle's climax, say experts.
"The latest prediction looks at around midway 2013 as being the maximum phase of the solar cycle," said Joe Kunches of NASA's Space Weather Prediction Center.
But there is a prolonged period of high activity, "more like a season, lasting about two and a half years," either side of the peak, he cautioned.
At its angriest, the sun can vomit forth tides of electromagnetic radiation and charged matter known as coronal mass ejections, or CMEs.
This shock wave may take several days to reach Earth. When it arrives, it compresses the planet's protective magnetic field, releasing energy visible in high latitudes as shimmering auroras -- the famous Northern Lights and Southern Lights.
But CMEs are not just pretty events.
They can unleash static discharges and geomagnetic storms that can disrupt or even knock out the electronics on which our urbanized, internet-obsessed, data-saturated society depends.
Less feared, but also a problem, are solar flares, or eruptions of super-charged protons that can reach Earth in just minutes.
In the front line are telecommunications satellites in geostationary orbit, at an altitude of 36,000 kilometers (22,500 miles) and Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites, on which modern airliners and ships depend for navigation, which orbit at 20,000 kilometers (12,000 miles).
In January 1994, discharges of static electricity inflicted a five-month, 50-million-dollar outage of a Canadian telecoms satellite, Anik-E2.
In April 2010, Intelsat lost Galaxy 15, providing communications over North America, after the link to ground control was knocked out apparently by solar activity. Intelsat appears to have regained some control of the satellite, but it's too early to tell if it will be fully operational again.
"These are the two outright breakdowns that we all think about," said Philippe Calvel, an engineer with the French firm Thales. "Both were caused by CMEs."
In 2005, x-rays from a solar storm disrupted satellite-to-ground communications and GPS signals for about 10 minutes.
To cope with solar fury, satellite designers opt for robust, tried-and-tested components and shielding, even if this makes the equipment heavier and bulkier and thus costlier to launch, said Thierry Duhamel of satellite maker Astrium.
Another precaution is redundancy -- to have backup systems in case one malfunctions.
On Earth, power lines, data connections and even oil and gas pipelines are potentially vulnerable.
An early warning of the risk came in 1859, when the biggest CME ever observed unleashed red, purple and green auroras even in tropical latitudes.
The new-fangled technology of the telegraph went crazy. Geomagnetically-induced currents in the wires shocked telegraph operators and even set the telegraph paper on fire.
In 1989, a far smaller flare knocked out power from Canada's Hydro Quebec generator, inflicting a nine-hour blackout for six million people.
A workshop in 2008 by US space weather experts, hosted by the National Academy of Sciences, heard that a major geomagnetic storm would dwarf the 2005 Hurricane Katrina for costs.
Recurrence of a 1921 event today would fry 350 major transformers, leaving more than 130 million people without power, it heard. A bigger storm could cost between a trillion and two trillion dollars in the first year, and full recovery could take between four and 10 years.
The coming year will be an important one for space weather as the sun pulls out of a trough of low activity and heads into a long-awaited and possibly destructive period of turbulence.
Many people may be surprised to learn that the sun, rather than burn with faultless consistency, goes through moments of calm and tempest.
But two centuries of observing sunspots -- dark, relatively cool marks on the solar face linked to mighty magnetic forces -- have revealed that our star follows a roughly 11-year cycle of behavior.
The latest cycle began in 1996 and for reasons which are unclear has taken longer than expected to end.
Now, though, there are more and more signs that the sun is shaking off its torpor and building towards "Solar Max," or the cycle's climax, say experts.
"The latest prediction looks at around midway 2013 as being the maximum phase of the solar cycle," said Joe Kunches of NASA's Space Weather Prediction Center.
But there is a prolonged period of high activity, "more like a season, lasting about two and a half years," either side of the peak, he cautioned.
At its angriest, the sun can vomit forth tides of electromagnetic radiation and charged matter known as coronal mass ejections, or CMEs.
This shock wave may take several days to reach Earth. When it arrives, it compresses the planet's protective magnetic field, releasing energy visible in high latitudes as shimmering auroras -- the famous Northern Lights and Southern Lights.
But CMEs are not just pretty events.
They can unleash static discharges and geomagnetic storms that can disrupt or even knock out the electronics on which our urbanized, internet-obsessed, data-saturated society depends.
Less feared, but also a problem, are solar flares, or eruptions of super-charged protons that can reach Earth in just minutes.
In the front line are telecommunications satellites in geostationary orbit, at an altitude of 36,000 kilometers (22,500 miles) and Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites, on which modern airliners and ships depend for navigation, which orbit at 20,000 kilometers (12,000 miles).
In January 1994, discharges of static electricity inflicted a five-month, 50-million-dollar outage of a Canadian telecoms satellite, Anik-E2.
In April 2010, Intelsat lost Galaxy 15, providing communications over North America, after the link to ground control was knocked out apparently by solar activity. Intelsat appears to have regained some control of the satellite, but it's too early to tell if it will be fully operational again.
"These are the two outright breakdowns that we all think about," said Philippe Calvel, an engineer with the French firm Thales. "Both were caused by CMEs."
In 2005, x-rays from a solar storm disrupted satellite-to-ground communications and GPS signals for about 10 minutes.
To cope with solar fury, satellite designers opt for robust, tried-and-tested components and shielding, even if this makes the equipment heavier and bulkier and thus costlier to launch, said Thierry Duhamel of satellite maker Astrium.
Another precaution is redundancy -- to have backup systems in case one malfunctions.
On Earth, power lines, data connections and even oil and gas pipelines are potentially vulnerable.
An early warning of the risk came in 1859, when the biggest CME ever observed unleashed red, purple and green auroras even in tropical latitudes.
The new-fangled technology of the telegraph went crazy. Geomagnetically-induced currents in the wires shocked telegraph operators and even set the telegraph paper on fire.
In 1989, a far smaller flare knocked out power from Canada's Hydro Quebec generator, inflicting a nine-hour blackout for six million people.
A workshop in 2008 by US space weather experts, hosted by the National Academy of Sciences, heard that a major geomagnetic storm would dwarf the 2005 Hurricane Katrina for costs.
Recurrence of a 1921 event today would fry 350 major transformers, leaving more than 130 million people without power, it heard. A bigger storm could cost between a trillion and two trillion dollars in the first year, and full recovery could take between four and 10 years.
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Solar Storms
Scientists warn of 'Space Weather Katrina' and say U.S. is unprepared
Wednesday, June 23rd 2010, 2:20 PM
Scientists warn that the Earth might be vulnerable to a "space weather
Katrina," an event that could leave large parts of the U.S. without
power, water or access to communication. And the U.S. is unprepared for
such a disaster.
Dr. Richard Fisher, director NASA's heliophysics division, says the sun
has an 11-year cycle and is now emerging from a quiet period.
The next phase of the cycle - the solar maximum - lasts from 2012 to
2015, he said. Larger solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
occur during this period. The largest flareups, estimated to occur every
30 to 100 years, cause geomagnetic storms strong enough to damage GPS
satellites and high-voltage transformers. A report from the National
Academy of Sciences, Severe Space Weather Events, says the U.S. is at
risk of losing power for a significant period of time.
"It's very likely in the next 10 years that we will have some impact
like that described in the National Academy report," said Fisher.
"Although I don't know to what degree."
Doug Biesecker, top solar physicist at the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said severe solar storms have occurred
in the past. The strongest geomagnetic storm on record occurred in 1859
and rendered telegraph machines useless. Another slightly smaller
geomagnetic storm occurred in 1921.
"If the 1921 storm happened today, it would knock out power from Maine
to Georgia," Biesecker said, "affecting 130 million people and 350
transformers." Transformers, he noted, can take over a year to fix and
they are not made in the U.S.
"This raises all kinds of geopolitical issues," said John Kappenman, a
principal of Storm Analysis Consultants. Kappenman was the lead
technical expert for a study conducted by the Metatech Corp. on the
potential impact of solar storms. Transformers are made in Europe,
Brazil, China and India. "If the blackout affected more than one
country, the U.S. would not necessarily be the first in line to get
one," he said.
A well-trained crew is required to install high-voltage transformers.
They weigh over 100 tons and would have to be shipped via an ocean
liner. "It could drag on for several weeks if the transportation sector
is compromised."
Unlike a hurricane, Kappenman said the aftermath of a solar storm could
be widespread, with 50% to 75% of the country affected. "We could have a
blackout like never before," he said. It took only a few days to get
back to normal after the 1977 or 2003 blackouts. "This time, you might
not get back to normal at all."
There would be no immediate help from neighboring areas. It would be
especially hard for big cities like New York. "You couldn't evacuate,"
he said. "Where do you put 8 million people?"
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