Thursday, January 27, 2011

A group of more than 100 scientists and experts say in a new report that California faces the risk of a massive "superstorm" that could flood a quarter of the state's homes and cause $300 billion to $400 billion in damage. Researchers point out that the potential scale of destruction in this storm scenario is four or five times the amount of damage that could be wrought by a major earthquake.

It sounds like the plot of an apocalyptic action movie, but scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey warned federal and state emergency officials that California's geological history shows such "superstorms" have happened in the past, and should be added to the long list of natural disasters to worry about in the Golden State.

[Photos: Dramatic funnel clouds caught on camera]

The threat of a cataclysmic California storm has been dormant for the past 150 years. Geological Survey director Marcia K. McNutt told the New York Times that a 300-mile stretch of the Central Valley was inundated from 1861-62. The floods were so bad that the state capital had to be moved to San Francisco, and Governor Leland Stanford had to take a rowboat to his own inauguration, the report notes. Even larger storms happened in past centuries, over the dates 212, 440, 603, 1029, 1418, and 1605, according to geological evidence.

The risk is gathering momentum now, scientists say, due to rising temperatures in the atmosphere, which has generally made weather patterns more volatile.

[Video: Unusual footage of fire tornado]

The scientists built a model that showed a storm could last for more than 40 days and dump 10 feet of water on the state. The storm would be goaded on by an "atmospheric river" that would move water "at the same rate as 50 Mississippis discharging water into the Gulf of Mexico," according to the AP. Winds could reach 125 miles per hour, and landslides could compound the damage, the report notes.

Such a superstorm is hypothetical but not improbable, climate researchers warn. "We think this event happens once every 100 or 200 years or so, which puts it in the same category as our big San Andreas earthquakes," Geological Survey scientist Lucy Jones said in a press release.[

Federal and state emergency management officials convened a conference about emergency preparations for possible superstorms last week. You can read the whole report here.

(A 2005 California storm: AP)

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

New Madrid Fault

Solar Storms

Scientists warn of 'Space Weather Katrina' and say U.S. is unprepared

BY SHERRY MAZZOCCHI
DAILY NEWS WRITER

Wednesday, June 23rd 2010, 2:20 PM

Scientists warn that the Earth might be vulnerable to a "space weather
Katrina," an event that could leave large parts of the U.S. without
power, water or access to communication. And the U.S. is unprepared for
such a disaster.

Dr. Richard Fisher, director NASA's heliophysics division, says the sun
has an 11-year cycle and is now emerging from a quiet period.

The next phase of the cycle - the solar maximum - lasts from 2012 to
2015, he said. Larger solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
occur during this period. The largest flareups, estimated to occur every
30 to 100 years, cause geomagnetic storms strong enough to damage GPS
satellites and high-voltage transformers. A report from the National
Academy of Sciences, Severe Space Weather Events, says the U.S. is at
risk of losing power for a significant period of time.

"It's very likely in the next 10 years that we will have some impact
like that described in the National Academy report," said Fisher.
"Although I don't know to what degree."

Doug Biesecker, top solar physicist at the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said severe solar storms have occurred
in the past. The strongest geomagnetic storm on record occurred in 1859
and rendered telegraph machines useless. Another slightly smaller
geomagnetic storm occurred in 1921.

"If the 1921 storm happened today, it would knock out power from Maine
to Georgia," Biesecker said, "affecting 130 million people and 350
transformers." Transformers, he noted, can take over a year to fix and
they are not made in the U.S.

"This raises all kinds of geopolitical issues," said John Kappenman, a
principal of Storm Analysis Consultants. Kappenman was the lead
technical expert for a study conducted by the Metatech Corp. on the
potential impact of solar storms. Transformers are made in Europe,
Brazil, China and India. "If the blackout affected more than one
country, the U.S. would not necessarily be the first in line to get
one," he said.

A well-trained crew is required to install high-voltage transformers.
They weigh over 100 tons and would have to be shipped via an ocean
liner. "It could drag on for several weeks if the transportation sector
is compromised."

Unlike a hurricane, Kappenman said the aftermath of a solar storm could
be widespread, with 50% to 75% of the country affected. "We could have a
blackout like never before," he said. It took only a few days to get
back to normal after the 1977 or 2003 blackouts. "This time, you might
not get back to normal at all."

There would be no immediate help from neighboring areas. It would be
especially hard for big cities like New York. "You couldn't evacuate,"
he said. "Where do you put 8 million people?"