Thursday, October 13, 2011

ESA's space hazards team have found an asteroid that comes close enough to Earth to pose an impact threat

Source

NEO found by amateur skywatchers as part of ESA's SSA programme
Amateur discovers near Earth asteroid in ESA-sponsored survey
Amateur skywatchers help space hazards team
12 October 2011
For the first time, observations coordinated by ESA's space hazards team have found an asteroid that comes close enough to Earth to pose an impact threat. The space rock was found by amateur astronomers, highlighting the value of 'crowd-sourcing' to science and planetary defence.

The discovery of asteroid 2011 SF108 was made by the volunteer Teide Observatory Tenerife Asteroid Survey (TOTAS) team during an observation slot sponsored by ESA's Space Situational Awareness (SSA) programme in September.

The four-night survey used the 1m-aperture telescope at ESA's Optical Ground Station at Teide on Tenerife in the Canary Islands.

This is not the first asteroid found under SSA sponsorship, but it is the first that qualifies as a 'near Earth object' – an object that passes close enough to Earth during its orbit around the Sun that it could pose an impact threat.

Images require human evaluation

During TOTAS observations, the telescope runs automated asteroid surveys for several hours using software developed by amateur astronomer and computer scientist Matthias Busch from the Starkenburg Amateur Observatory in Heppenheim, Germany.

However, potential sightings must still be evaluated by humans.

The team comprises 20 volunteers, most of whom took part in the manual evaluation of images captured during the session on 28/29 September.


OGS building
Optical Ground Station (OGS) building, Tenerife
Safe distance: 30 million km

"Images are distributed to the entire team for review, and any one of them could be the discoverer of a new asteroid," says Detlef Koschny, Head of NEO activity for SSA. "This time, the luck of the draw fell to Rainer Kracht."

"As volunteer work, it is very rewarding. When you do spot something, you contribute to Europe's efforts in defending against asteroid hazards."

The orbit of asteroid 2011 SF108 brings it no closer than about 30 million km to Earth – a safe distance.


“When you do spot something, you contribute to Europe's efforts in defending against asteroid hazards.”
The object is the 46th asteroid discovered by Mr Kracht, a retired school teacher who lives in Elmshorn, near Hamburg, Germany. "Eight of us reviewed images on the night of the discovery, and I was lucky to be the one who found 2011 SF108 as part of this team," says Mr Kracht.

"The discovery was only possible with the excellent software developed by Matthias Busch, who also spotted this object in the images on the second night and sent the observations to the Minor Planet Center."

To date, some 8000 NEOs have been discovered worldwide but many thousands more are suspected to exist, particularly in the size of metres to hundreds of metres. It is important to find and track these to determine if any pose an impact threat to Earth.


Control room at ESA's Optical Ground Station
Control room at ESA's Optical Ground Station, Tenerife
Amateur TOTAS team lays foundation

TOTAS is helping to lay the foundation for a future European asteroid survey as part of the full SSA programme, which is to be decided in 2012.

Such a survey would use multiple 1m telescopes to scan the complete sky every night, a much larger effort than at present, and is expected to discover several NEOs per week. It would use a mix of professional and 'crowd-sourced' astronomers.

Currently, professional asteroid surveys are performed only in the USA. The only significant asteroid survey in Europe now is the La Sagra Sky Survey, undertaken by amateur astronomers in southern Spain.

Friday, May 27, 2011

Solar Max



2011 is going to be a key solar weather year as the sun starts to become more active. At its angriest, the sun can emit tides of electromagnetic radiation and charged matter known as coronal mass ejections, or CMEs, emitting electromagnetic burts that could disrupt satellites and other technology. * The sun goes through moments of calm and tempest, usually on an 11-year cycle. * Static discharges and geomagnetic storms on the sun can disrupt electronics. * The latest prediction suggests 2013 will be the maximum phase of the solar cycle. Wed Dec 29, 2010 02:33 PM ET Content provided by AFP

The coming year will be an important one for space weather as the sun pulls out of a trough of low activity and heads into a long-awaited and possibly destructive period of turbulence.

Many people may be surprised to learn that the sun, rather than burn with faultless consistency, goes through moments of calm and tempest.

But two centuries of observing sunspots -- dark, relatively cool marks on the solar face linked to mighty magnetic forces -- have revealed that our star follows a roughly 11-year cycle of behavior.

The latest cycle began in 1996 and for reasons which are unclear has taken longer than expected to end.

Now, though, there are more and more signs that the sun is shaking off its torpor and building towards "Solar Max," or the cycle's climax, say experts.

"The latest prediction looks at around midway 2013 as being the maximum phase of the solar cycle," said Joe Kunches of NASA's Space Weather Prediction Center.

But there is a prolonged period of high activity, "more like a season, lasting about two and a half years," either side of the peak, he cautioned.

At its angriest, the sun can vomit forth tides of electromagnetic radiation and charged matter known as coronal mass ejections, or CMEs.

This shock wave may take several days to reach Earth. When it arrives, it compresses the planet's protective magnetic field, releasing energy visible in high latitudes as shimmering auroras -- the famous Northern Lights and Southern Lights.

But CMEs are not just pretty events.

They can unleash static discharges and geomagnetic storms that can disrupt or even knock out the electronics on which our urbanized, internet-obsessed, data-saturated society depends.

Less feared, but also a problem, are solar flares, or eruptions of super-charged protons that can reach Earth in just minutes.

In the front line are telecommunications satellites in geostationary orbit, at an altitude of 36,000 kilometers (22,500 miles) and Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites, on which modern airliners and ships depend for navigation, which orbit at 20,000 kilometers (12,000 miles).

In January 1994, discharges of static electricity inflicted a five-month, 50-million-dollar outage of a Canadian telecoms satellite, Anik-E2.

In April 2010, Intelsat lost Galaxy 15, providing communications over North America, after the link to ground control was knocked out apparently by solar activity. Intelsat appears to have regained some control of the satellite, but it's too early to tell if it will be fully operational again.

"These are the two outright breakdowns that we all think about," said Philippe Calvel, an engineer with the French firm Thales. "Both were caused by CMEs."

In 2005, x-rays from a solar storm disrupted satellite-to-ground communications and GPS signals for about 10 minutes.

To cope with solar fury, satellite designers opt for robust, tried-and-tested components and shielding, even if this makes the equipment heavier and bulkier and thus costlier to launch, said Thierry Duhamel of satellite maker Astrium.

Another precaution is redundancy -- to have backup systems in case one malfunctions.

On Earth, power lines, data connections and even oil and gas pipelines are potentially vulnerable.

An early warning of the risk came in 1859, when the biggest CME ever observed unleashed red, purple and green auroras even in tropical latitudes.

The new-fangled technology of the telegraph went crazy. Geomagnetically-induced currents in the wires shocked telegraph operators and even set the telegraph paper on fire.

In 1989, a far smaller flare knocked out power from Canada's Hydro Quebec generator, inflicting a nine-hour blackout for six million people.

A workshop in 2008 by US space weather experts, hosted by the National Academy of Sciences, heard that a major geomagnetic storm would dwarf the 2005 Hurricane Katrina for costs.

Recurrence of a 1921 event today would fry 350 major transformers, leaving more than 130 million people without power, it heard. A bigger storm could cost between a trillion and two trillion dollars in the first year, and full recovery could take between four and 10 years.


Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Panic stations! New theory behind climate change

Source
07.02.2011

The Earth's magnetic pole is inexplicably shifting, creating unstoppable forces generating monster storms which we have seen at the beginning of 2011. There is evidence that a cycle of super-storms has started, the latest being the gigantic ice storm across North America. Is this the beginning of a new Ice Age?

43300.jpegFrightening new evidence begins to surface about the Earth's wobble, its effect on the climate and the beginning of a new Ice Age, heralded by a series of monster storms such as those unleashed on the UK in late 2010, the USA before Christmas and now again at the beginning of February and Eastern Australia, first with its worst flooding ever and then with a Category 5 hurricane.

The latest storm to hit the USA has affected 150 million people and stretches across 2,000 miles of territory, according to the research presented in the article "Magnetic polar shifts causing massive global superstorms"*. In Australia, unprecedented rains saw sharks swimming along the streets of towns and so much water fell, that "Shocked authorities now numbly concede that some of the water may never dissipate and have wearily resigned themselves to the possibility that region will now contain a small inland sea".

Then struck Yasi with its winds of almost 200 mph - 22 per cent faster that a Category 5 hurricane. "Yet Yasi may only be a foretaste of future super-storms. Some climate researchers, monitoring the rapidly shifting magnetic field, are predicting super-storms in the future with winds as high as 300 to 400mph," states researcher Terrence Aym.

What is happening?

According to the research, a change in the Sun's electromagnetic field is reacting with the Earth's, having an effect not only on the Earth's magnetosphere, but also its wobble, the dynamics of its core, the Ocean currents and the weather. The result is that the Earth's magnetic core has been shifting 40 miles to the East annually over the last decade, as opposed to the 5-mile average. Worse, it is accelerating.

Terrence Aym reveals NASA reports which indicate the Earth's magnetic field now shows cracks, affecting the ionosphere and troposphere wind patterns; the work also quotes the Federal Agency NOAA, which "issued a report caused a flurry of panic when they predicted that mammoth superstorms in the future could wipe out most of California."

Even more worrying is the quote from The Economist in a detailed article about the magnetic field: "There is, however, a growing body of evidence that the Earth's magnetic

field is about to disappear, at least for a while. The geological record shows that it flips from time to time, with the south pole becoming the north, and vice versa. On average, such reversals take place every 500,000 years, but there is no discernible pattern. Flips have happened as close together as 50,000 years, though the last one was 780,000 years ago. But, as discussed at the Greenland Space Science Symposium, held in Kangerlussuaq this week, the signs are that another flip is coming soon."

Not only that...all the signs are there for the beginning of a new Ice Age.

Russian scientists predict asteroid strike

Source
31.01.2011

April 13, 2036 is the date of impact when the asteroid Apophis will smash into the Earth with the force of 50 million Hiroshima bombs, according to research based on predictions by Russian scientists. This is more than another scare story: so many scientists agree that a major international conference has been called.

43220.jpegIn his work "Astronomers now predict killer asteroid will hit Earth in 2036", US based researcher and writer Terrence Aym* quotes Russian Professor Leonid Sokolov, of St. Petersburg State University, who stated in a TV interview recently that "It is likely a collision with Earth may occur on April 13, 2036" with the asteroid Apophis.

Aym points out that Apophis is the Greek name for the Egyptian God Apep, or "The Uncreator".

This is not empty scare mongering. More and more scientists recognise the danger is real, so many that a major international summit has been convened. Anatoly Perminov, the head of the Russian Federal Space Agency Roscosmos stated in an official press release. "Russian space officials and members of the European Commission will meet in early July to discuss joining forces against thousands of potentially hazardous asteroids."

Until 2004, according to the work, Apophis had not been seen, however in the last seven years it has been recognised as the most severe threat to our planet, and to quote Terrence Aym, "the most imminent threat to the human race".


The trajectory of Apophis has created a split in the international scientific community: the Russians and Europeans are increasingly concerned, while NASA astronomers play down the chances of a collision. Whatever the case, what is the plan in the event of a catastrophic strike, a repeat of the Yucatan asteroid impact 65 million years ago which wiped out most of the larger species on Earth?

To be succinct, there isn't one. Russia and the European Union will launch a joint asteroid project in a meeting to be held on July 7, 2011, between the European Commission and scientists and engineers from the Russian Federal Space Agency, the Russian Academy of Sciences and representatives of other scientific and civil Institutions.


The Russian Space Agency Roscosmos, according to the work, has calculated that such an impact would not only cause massive climate change but worse, with an impact the equivalent of one million megatons of TNT (50 million Hiroshima bombs), would annihilate modern civilization. Terrence Aym writes that a crater with a diameter of one thousand kilometres would be created and the dust thrown up into the atmosphere would blot out the Sun, creating a nuclear-type Winter lasting up to tens of thousands of years.

The work continues with an ominous quotation from the Russian specialist: "In recent years, the attention of scientists, technicians, politicians and the military has become increasingly focused on the asteroid and comet hazard, namely the threat of the Earth's collision with large space bodies," Perminov stated. "It is caused by the fact that special supervision programs led to a dramatic increase in the number of such objects being detected, and the new information allowed to gain a new insight into the problem."

* Terrence Aym

Magnetic polar shifts causing massive global superstorms

by Terrence Aym
  • Writing Level StarWriting Level StarWriting Level StarWriting Level StarWriting Level Star

February 04, 2011

NASA has been warning about it…scientific papers have been written about it…geologists have seen its traces in rock strata and ice core samples…

Now "it" is here: an unstoppable magnetic pole shift that has sped up and is causing life-threatening havoc with the world's weather.

Forget about global warming—man-made or natural—what drives planetary weather patterns is the climate and what drives the climate is the sun's magnetosphere and its electromagnetic interaction with a planet's own magnetic field.

When the field shifts, when it fluctuates, when it goes into flux and begins to become unstable anything can happen. And what normally happens is that all hell breaks loose.

Magnetic polar shifts have occurred many times in Earth's history. It's happening again now to every planet in the solar system including Earth.

The magnetic field drives weather to a significant degree and when that field starts migrating superstorms start erupting.

The superstorms have arrived

The first evidence we have that the dangerous superstorm cycle has started is the devastating series of storms that pounded the UK during late 2010.

On the heels of the lashing the British Isles sustained, monster storms began to pummel North America. The latest superstorm—as of this writing—is a monster over the U.S. that stretched across 2,000 miles affecting more than 150 million people.

Yet even as that storm wreaked havoc across the Western, Southern, Midwestern and Northeastern states, another superstorm broke out in the Pacific and closed in on Australia.

The southern continent had already dealt with the disaster of historic superstorm flooding from rains that dropped as much as several feet in a matter of hours. Tens of thousands of homes were damaged or destroyed. After the deluge bull sharks were spotted swimming between houses in what was once the quiet town of Goodna.

Shocked authorities now numbly concede that some of the water may never dissipate and have wearily resigned themselves to the possibility that region will now contain a small inland sea.

But then only a handful of weeks later another superstorm—the mega-monster cyclone Yasi—struck northeastern Australia. The damage it left in its wake is being called by rescue workers a war zone.

The incredible superstorm packed winds near 190mph. Although labeled as a category-5 cyclone, it was theoretically a category-6. The reason for that is storms with winds of 155mph are considered category-5, yet Yasi was almost 22 percent stronger than that.

A cat's cradle

Yet Yasi may only be a foretaste of future superstorms. Some climate researchers, monitoring the rapidly shifting magnetic field, are predicting superstorms in the future with winds as high as 300 to 400mph.

Such storms would totally destroy anything they came into contact with on land.

The possibility more storms like Yasi or worse will wreak havoc on our civilization and resources is found in the complicated electromagnetic relationship between the sun and Earth. The synergistic tug-of-war has been compared by some to an intricately constructed cat's cradle. And it's in a constant state of flux.

The sun's dynamic, ever-changing electric magnetosphere interfaces with the Earth's own magnetic field affecting, to a degree, the Earth's rotation, precessional wobble, dynamics of the planet's core, its ocean currents and—above all else—the weather.

Cracks in Earth's Magnetic Shield

The Earth's northern magnetic pole was moving towards Russia at a rate of about five miles annually. That progression to the East had been happening for decades.

Suddenly, in the past decade the rate sped up. Now the magnetic pole is shifting East at a rate of 40 miles annually, an increase of 800 percent. And it continues to accelerate.

Recently, as the magnetic field fluctuates, NASA has discovered "cracks" in it. This is worrisome as it significantly affects the ionosphere, troposphere wind patterns, and atmospheric moisture. All three things have an effect on the weather.

Worse, what shields the planet from cancer-causing radiation is the magnetic field. It acts as a shield deflecting harmful ultra-violet, X-rays and other life-threatening radiation from bathing the surface of the Earth. With the field weakening and cracks emerging, the death rate from cancer could skyrocket and mutations of DNA can become rampant.

Another federal agency, NOAA, issued a report caused a flurry of panic when they predicted that mammoth superstorms in the future could wipe out most of California. The NOAA scientists said it's a plausible scenario and would be driven by an "atmospheric river" moving water at the same rate as 50 Mississippi rivers flowing into the Gulf of Mexico.

Magnetic field may dip, flip and disappear

The Economist wrote a detailed article about the magnetic field and what's happening to it. In the article they noted:

"There is, however, a growing body of evidence that the Earth's magnetic field is about to disappear, at least for a while. The geological record shows that it flips from time to time, with the south pole becoming the north, and vice versa. On average, such reversals take place every 500,000 years, but there is no discernible pattern. Flips have happened as close together as 50,000 years, though the last one was 780,000 years ago. But, as discussed at the Greenland Space Science Symposium, held in Kangerlussuaq this week, the signs are that another flip is coming soon."

Discussing the magnetic polar shift and the impact on weather, the scholarly paper "Weather and the Earth's magnetic field" was published in the journal Nature. Scientists too are very concerned about the increasing danger of superstorms and the impact on humanity.

Superstorms will not only damage agriculture across the planet leading to famines and mass starvation, they will also change coastlines, destroy cities and create tens of millions of homeless.

Superstorms can also cause certain societies, cultures or whole countries to collapse. Others may go to war with each other.

A Danish study published in the scientific journal Geology, found strong correlation between climate change, weather patterns and the magnetic field.

"The earth's climate has been significantly affected by the planet's magnetic field, according to a Danish study published Monday that could challenge the notion that human emissions are responsible for global warming.

"'Our results show a strong correlation between the strength of the earth's magnetic field and the amount of precipitation in the tropics,' one of the two Danish geophysicists behind the study, Mads Faurschou Knudsen of the geology department at Aarhus University in western Denmark, told the Videnskab journal.

"He and his colleague Peter Riisager, of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), compared a reconstruction of the prehistoric magnetic field 5,000 years ago based on data drawn from stalagmites and stalactites found in China and Oman."

In the scientific paper "Midday magnetopause shifts earthward of geosynchronous orbit during geomagnetic superstorms with Dst = -300 nT" the magnetic intensity of solar storms impacting Earth can intensify the effects of the polar shift and also speed up the frequency of the emerging superstorms.

Possible magnetic pole reversal may also be initiating new Ice Age

According to some geologists and scientists, we have left the last interglacial period behind us. Those periods are lengths of time—about 11,500 years—between major Ice Ages.

One of the most stunning signs of the approaching Ice Age is what's happened to the Chandler wobble.

The Earth's wobble has stopped.

As explained in the geology and space science websiteearthchangesmedia.com, "The Chandler wobble was first discovered back in 1891 by Seth Carlo Chandler an American astronomer. The effect causes the Earth's poles to move in an irregular circle of 3 to 15 meters in diameter in an oscillation. The Earth's Wobble has a 7-year cycle which produces two extremes, a small spiraling wobble circle and a large spiraling wobble circle, about 3.5 years apart.

"The Earth was in October 2005 moving into the small spiraling circle (the MIN phase of the wobble), which should have slowly unfolded during 2006 and the first few months of 2007. (Each spiraling circle takes about 14 months). But suddenly at the beginning of November 2005, the track of the location of the spin axis veered at a very sharp right angle to its circling motion.

"The track of the spin axis began to slow down and by about January 8, 2006, it ceased nearly all relative motion on the x and y coordinates which are used to define the daily changing location of the spin axis."

And the Earth stopped wobbling—exactly as predicted as another strong sign of an imminent Ice Age.

So, the start of a new Ice Age is marked by a magnetic pole reversal, increased volcanic activity, larger and more frequent earthquakes, tsunamis, colder winters, superstorms and the halting of the Chandler wobble.

Unfortunately, all of those conditions are being met.

Astronomers now predict killer asteroid will hit Earth in 2036

Source

by Terrence Aym
  • Writing Level StarWriting Level StarWriting Level StarWriting Level StarWriting Level Star

January 28, 2011

Grim astronomers in Russia have recalculated the trajectory of the ominous asteroid Apophis and now predict it will slam into Earth on April 13, 2036.

An asteroid struck the Yucatan basin 65 million years ago wiping out the dinosaurs, changing the climate, and destroying much of life on Earth.

The asteroid's name, Apophis, is the Greek name for the Egyptian god Apep, also known as "the Uncreator."

"Apophis will approach Earth at a distance of 37,000 to 38,000 kilometers on April 13, 2029. Its likely collision with Earth may occur on April 13, 2036," Professor Leonid Sokolov of the St. Petersburg State University stated during an interview with state television and reported by Russian news service RIA Novosti.

As more astronomers are recognizing the danger, a major summit has been called. "Russian space officials and members of the European Commission will meet in early July to discuss joining forces against thousands of potentially hazardous asteroids," Anatoly Perminov, the head of the Russian Federal Space Agency Roscosmos stated in an official press release.

Largest threat

Although large meteors and asteroids whiz by our planet every year—and thousands of tons of space debris falls through our atmosphere annually—Apophis, first seen during 2004, is considered by scientists to be the most imminent threat to the human race.

While Russian and European scientists have increased their warnings of the approaching danger the asteroid poses, NASA has charted a different course. In 2010 the American space agency announced it had reduced the chances the object's disastrous collision with Earth.

Sokolov believes the project is urgent as each day that passes will make it more difficult to steer the asteroid with current technology.

As nations around the world have recognized the threat large space objects such as comets and asteroids pose to life on Earth, no global defense plan has been developed to meet a possible emergency. Without a plan and effective defense, catastrophe might result.

A meeting scheduled for July 7, 2011 will consider a proposal to launch a joint asteroid project between Russia and the European Union.

In an interview on Russian television following the press release, Perminov said, "I received a letter, in which the European Commission proposes to meet on July 7 in Roscosmos with scientists and engineers of the Federal Space Agency, the Russian Academy of Sciences and other institutions and organizations. At the meeting, the Russian bid to start
a joint project with the EU will be considered."

50 million Hiroshima bombs

Roscosmos has its own cable channel. Recently it released calculations based on the data gathered from nuclear weapons tests, that reveal asteroids with diameters of one to two kilometers are sufficient to initiate massive climate change after an impact with Earth.

The figures show that a collision with an object of such a mass would generate the equivalent of one million megatons of TNT—or put another way—approximately 50 million of the type of atom bomb dropped on Hiroshima.

And that, of course, is enough to destroy all of modern civilization.

Forces of Doomsday

Rosomov warns that an impact by an object the size and mass of Apophis, traveling at the speed it does, would create indescribable kinetic energies and release the forces of Doomsday. Such an asteroid strike would create a crater at least 1,000 kilometers across and catapult billions of tons of dust and soot into the atmosphere. The so-called "nuclear winter" would follow immediately and plunge the entire world into the depths of a major Ice Age lasting thousands, even tens of thousands of years.

"In recent years, the attention of scientists, technicians, politicians and the military has become increasingly focused on the asteroid and comet hazard, namely the threat of the Earth's collision with large space bodies," Perminov stated. "It is caused by the fact that special supervision programs led to a dramatic increase in the number of such objects being detected, and the new information allowed to gain a new insight into the problem."

Spacefaring countries have all launched asteroid tracking projects designed to identify and calculate objects that may present a clear and present danger to the planet. NASA's Near Earth Asteroid Tracking (NEAT), Deep Space 1, Deep Impact, Dawn and Stardust, as well as ESA's Rosetta and JAXA's Hayabusa are some of the most well known.

"Our task is to consider various alternatives and develop scenarios and plans of action depending on the results of further observations of Apophis," Sokolov said.


Thursday, January 27, 2011

California Superstorm


A group of more than 100 scientists and experts say in a new report that California faces the risk of a massive "superstorm" that could flood a quarter of the state's homes and cause $300 billion to $400 billion in damage. Researchers point out that the potential scale of destruction in this storm scenario is four or five times the amount of damage that could be wrought by a major earthquake.

It sounds like the plot of an apocalyptic action movie, but scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey warned federal and state emergency officials that California's geological history shows such "superstorms" have happened in the past, and should be added to the long list of natural disasters to worry about in the Golden State.

The threat of a cataclysmic California storm has been dormant for the past 150 years. Geological Survey director Marcia K. McNutt told the New York Times that a 300-mile stretch of the Central Valley was inundated from 1861-62. The floods were so bad that the state capital had to be moved to San Francisco, and Governor Leland Stanford had to take a rowboat to his own inauguration, the report notes. Even larger storms happened in past centuries, over the dates 212, 440, 603, 1029, 1418, and 1605, according to geological evidence.

The risk is gathering momentum now, scientists say, due to rising temperatures in the atmosphere, which has generally made weather patterns more volatile.

[Video: Unusual footage of fire tornado]

The scientists built a model that showed a storm could last for more than 40 days and dump 10 feet of water on the state. The storm would be goaded on by an "atmospheric river" that would move water "at the same rate as 50 Mississippis discharging water into the Gulf of Mexico," according to the AP. Winds could reach 125 miles per hour, and landslides could compound the damage, the report notes.

Such a superstorm is hypothetical but not improbable, climate researchers warn. "We think this event happens once every 100 or 200 years or so, which puts it in the same category as our big San Andreas earthquakes," Geological Survey scientist Lucy Jones said in a press release.[

Related: Little boy becomes hero of Australian flood]

Federal and state emergency management officials convened a conference about emergency preparations for possible superstorms last week. You can read the whole report here.

(A 2005 California storm: AP)

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

New Madrid Fault




Solar Storms

Scientists warn of 'Space Weather Katrina' and say U.S. is unprepared

Wednesday, June 23rd 2010, 2:20 PM


Scientists warn that the Earth might be vulnerable to a "space weather
Katrina," an event that could leave large parts of the U.S. without
power, water or access to communication. And the U.S. is unprepared for
such a disaster.

Dr. Richard Fisher, director NASA's heliophysics division, says the sun
has an 11-year cycle and is now emerging from a quiet period.

The next phase of the cycle - the solar maximum - lasts from 2012 to
2015, he said. Larger solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
occur during this period. The largest flareups, estimated to occur every
30 to 100 years, cause geomagnetic storms strong enough to damage GPS
satellites and high-voltage transformers. A report from the National
Academy of Sciences, Severe Space Weather Events, says the U.S. is at
risk of losing power for a significant period of time.

"It's very likely in the next 10 years that we will have some impact
like that described in the National Academy report," said Fisher.
"Although I don't know to what degree."

Doug Biesecker, top solar physicist at the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said severe solar storms have occurred
in the past. The strongest geomagnetic storm on record occurred in 1859
and rendered telegraph machines useless. Another slightly smaller
geomagnetic storm occurred in 1921.

"If the 1921 storm happened today, it would knock out power from Maine
to Georgia," Biesecker said, "affecting 130 million people and 350
transformers." Transformers, he noted, can take over a year to fix and
they are not made in the U.S.

"This raises all kinds of geopolitical issues," said John Kappenman, a
principal of Storm Analysis Consultants. Kappenman was the lead
technical expert for a study conducted by the Metatech Corp. on the
potential impact of solar storms. Transformers are made in Europe,
Brazil, China and India. "If the blackout affected more than one
country, the U.S. would not necessarily be the first in line to get
one," he said.

A well-trained crew is required to install high-voltage transformers.
They weigh over 100 tons and would have to be shipped via an ocean
liner. "It could drag on for several weeks if the transportation sector
is compromised."

Unlike a hurricane, Kappenman said the aftermath of a solar storm could
be widespread, with 50% to 75% of the country affected. "We could have a
blackout like never before," he said. It took only a few days to get
back to normal after the 1977 or 2003 blackouts. "This time, you might
not get back to normal at all."


There would be no immediate help from neighboring areas. It would be
especially hard for big cities like New York. "You couldn't evacuate,"
he said. "Where do you put 8 million people?"